← Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
Water FractalTier 1
at Nor Cal Santa Clara Convention Center PTM Regional 2026
decks
4
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
16-10-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1464
· range 1418–1516
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1195
Q3 1418
1678
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.9% | -12.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.7 |
| Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +22.0 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
